Production-weighted decline rate of oil and gas fields is somewhat different, especially since 1985, compared to the average decline rate. The reason for this change is the introduction of new technologies, most notably horizontal drilling and fracturing techniques, in many major fields. Using new technologies, it was possible to halt the decline in many giants and keep production stable for some time. Eventually the average and the production-weighted declines must follow each other. The currently stable production-weighted decline cannot be expected to continue far into the future, once technology enhanced fields reach the final onset of decline. A limit for the average decline rate of the giant oil fields occur when all the fields in the population have reached the onset of decline. In other words the average decline rate cannot increase monotonously, but will sooner or later reach a limit.
29.08.2009